After what was the warmest winter on record, the upcoming winter should be wet and milder for most of the U.S., according to the Farmers' Almanac.
The 208th edition of the Farmers' Almanac, out now, foresees a "Wet Winter Whirlwind," for the upcoming 2024-2025 winter season. "It definitely looks more wet than white in many areas," Farmers' Almanac Editor Sandi Duncan told USA TODAY. "Obviously, depending on where you live, there might be more white than wet, but we're focusing in on the wet winter ahead."
The climate pattern known as La Niña – likely to emerge in the September-November period, the Climate Prediction Center said in a recent forecast – could result in a warmer winter than normal in much of the country, she said.
Average or above normal temperatures are forecast for New England, the Northeast, the Southern Plains, the Southeast and the Atlantic Coast regions.
"The coldest temperatures look like they're going to be over the North Central States into the Great Lakes area," Duncan said.
Most of the nation can expect a wet Thanksgiving holiday, too, "except for way out in the Southwest," she said. And Christmas "looks wet rather than white for most areas."
The end of January gets a red flag for much of the nation due to the potential of "a very active storm track" expected to bring strong and gusty winds, along with heavy precipitation – "copious amounts of snow, rain, sleet, and ice (depending on where you live) could fall," the Almanac says.
The winter chill is expected to "hang on" longer than usual in the North, Northeast and middle of the U.S. "So it looks like it's going to feel like a longer winter, even if it's a little warmer in certain areas that usually get snowier conditions," she said.
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La Niña:Hurricane season could be 'extremely active' with arrival of climate pattern
Did the Farmers' Almanac get its winter weather prediction right last year?
Not if you consider the Almanac's overall forecast of a cold 2023-2024 winter because it was the warmest on record. However, the Almanac notes it hit on some of its predictions including heavy show and blizzard conditions from Colorado to the Plains that threatened Christmas holiday travel.
The Almanac's forecast paralleled a weather pattern described by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as "a swatch of cooler-than-average temperatures across the central part of the country in January."
The Farmers' Almanac, which originated in 1818, says itslongtime fans claim the publication's weather predictions are accurate approximately 80%-85% of the time. It uses "a top-secret mathematical and astronomicalformula, taking sunspot activity, tidal action, the position of the planet, and many other factors into consideration," the Almanac states.
Should you base your plans on the Farmers' Almanac – or the Old Farmer's Almanac, due out later this month? Russ Schumacher, a professor and climatologist at Colorado State University, was skeptical he toldthe Coloradoanin 2022
"They attract attention and get people talking about it. But a lot of times what they do is use general phrases that are true most any year," he said.
"What does 'glacial and snow-filled' for our area mean? Is that we get a few days of really cold weather and some snow? That happens pretty much every winter,'' he said.
The Farmers' Almanac still makes for an interesting read. Here's a closer look at its regional winter forecasts (click on a link to go directly to that region's forecast).
Northeast, New York | Midwest, Ohio and Michigan| Pacific Northwest| North Central | Southeast, Florida | Texas, South Central | California, Southwest
Northeast, New York: 'Active time' for storms in late January
Winter in the New England and the Northeast region (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont) will be stormy with above-normal amounts of precipitation and near- to above-normal temperatures, according to the Almanac. "Obviously, in the mountainous areas, we do see some good opportunities for that winter precipitation to turn white," Duncan said.
An early start to winter is expected with a coastal storm along the Atlantic Seaboard in the first week of December bringing mixed precipitation, then very cold temperatures. Much of New England and New York can expect a few inches of snow from a "fast-moving clipper system" in mid-January; the rest of the region gets rains and a wintry mix.
The end of January will be "a very active time," for the region with a big storm dropping six or more inches of snow to Delaware, Maryland and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, "with some lighter amounts in southern New York and New England," Duncan said.
Snow storms are predicted into March with one dropping up to 5 inches in mid-March in upstate New York and central and northern New England.
Midwest, Ohio and Michigan: 'Big freeze' in January
The Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest region (Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin) can expect periods of wet snow and rain to begin in early November, with "frigidly cold" temperatures through Nov. 11. Rain and wet snow continues to Thanksgiving, with a drier forecast toward the end of the year.
"January looks like when the Big Freeze may be on for that area," Duncan said. With "very, very cold" conditions expected, "If you can plan your trip to the Caribbean, I would go then."
In mid-March, a "rapidly moving storm" is expected to bring two to five inches of wet snow to Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and the lower peninsula of Michigan and a wintry mix to Kentucky. The first of April is also predicted to bring cold rain, sleet and wet snow to Kentucky, southern Indiana and southern Ohio.
Northwest: Rain and wet snow for Idaho, Oregon and Washington
The Northwest region (Idaho, Oregon and Washington) will get plenty of showers, with wet snow beginning in early November. A stormy December may yield a possible fair, dry and cold Christmas holiday, then a fair January.
But in early February, a major storm is expected to bring heavy snow to the Bitterroot Range in eastern Idaho "with 12 inches possible."
"So I think it's going to be very wet conditions," Duncan said. "It obviously may not be so bad in the other states in that region."
North Central states, Colorado: 'More like winter'
The North Central states (Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming) will get a gusty Halloween and then snow in the Rockies at the start of November. An early November storm is predicted to bring heavy snow and, after it clears very cold temperatures. After a rainy, snowy Thanksgiving more storms kick off December. But a "generally fair, dry, very cold" Christmas is forecast; unseasonably cold temperatures are predicted to arrive in late January.
"This is where we are saying winter feels a little bit more like winter, with the coldest temperatures of the season and average snowfall," Duncan said. Expect a lot of snow in February, with some generated by that storm forecast for Idaho. A mid-February snowstorm predicted in the Plains could dump heaviest in Kansas.
Southeast, Florida: 'Mild and wet' winter
Southeast states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia) overall are expected to be "mild and wet," Duncan said. "But that doesn't mean they will escape Old Man Winter."
A "sharp cold front" in mid-November could bring violent thunderstorms to Tennessee and areas south, followed by a deep freeze. Conditions return to fair and dry before a wet Thanksgiving. An early December coastal storm could bring rain, winds and "very cold air" plus freezing conditions into Florida. A wet Christmas follows.
"We do see some colder conditions and very cold and bitterly cold conditions ending the month (of January) in the Southeast states," Duncan said.
Cold conditions are predicted to continue into February, with a midmonth storm possibly bringing sleet and wet snow to most of the region.
Texas, South Central: Another winter snowstorm predicted
South Central states (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, New Mexico) and Texas are forecast to have "mild with near to below normal precipitation," Duncan said.
The region is expected to get plenty of rain and wet snow in December, followed by a mostly fair January.
But the beginning of February will be "very unsettled, with some snow, possibly … up to 6 inches" in Texas, she said.
A wet Mardi Gras could be upcoming, too, according to the Almanac.
California, Southwest: 'Fair, dry, very chilly' Christmas
Southwest states (Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah) are forecast to have average temperatures and precipitation, a possible break from last winter's atmospheric rivers. A dry Thanksgiving is followed by rain and snow showers and a "fair, dry, very chilly" Christmas season is forecast.
Heavy snow in the mountains in late January could lead to storms to the east.
With colder conditions also forecast in the Southeast, and Midwest and a major storm in the Northwest at the beginning of February, "the end of January (and) beginning of February, for most of the country, looks like something you just may want to put on the calendar," Duncan said.
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