The Detroit Tigers took down the defending World Series Champion Texas Rangers on Monday, June 3 2-1 in a close game. Detroit started 27-year-old southpaw Tarik Skubal, who pitched six innings, allowed one run and struck out six. The Tigers didn’t score the winning run until Skubal had been removed from the game, resulting in his not factoring into the decision.
Detroit heads into June 4 with an even 30-30 record. Skubal is 7-1 over 12 starts with a 1.97 ERA and 86 strikeouts. He has the best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the 2024 AL Cy Young Award installed at +150. While the frontrunner, is Skuball too risky to bet on? Is there another player who is a smarter bet?
The Case for Skubal
Skubal opened the season with the fifth-best odds in the AL to win the Cy Young. He was installed at +900 and was preceded by Corbin Burnes (+700), Kevin Gausman (+700), Luis Castillo (+800) and Framber Valdez (+800).
Skubal’s ERA is the fifth-best in the MLB, he has the eighth-most strikeouts, and he’s tied for the fourth-best record. When looking specifically at AL pitchers, he has the third-best ERA behind Seth Lugo (1.72 ERA) and Tanner Houck (1.85).
Skubal has the fourth-most strikeouts for an AL pitcher, following Garrett Crochet (93), teammate Jack Flaherty (90), and Cole Ragans (89). He has the fourth-highest WAR (2.9), fifth-highest K/9 and has the highest WHIP (0.88) in the AL. Hitters are struggling against Skubal with a .191 opposing batting average, the second-lowest in the AL. Skubal has been able to stay consistent so far, and sustaining that over the remainder of the season could be enough to have him win the AL Cy Young Award.
The Worry for Skubal
Ahead of the season, it seemed like Skubal would benefit from pitching in the AL Central. The division looked like it was going to be a mid-tier shootout between the Minnesota Twins, Tigers and Cleveland Guardians, with the Kansas City Royals being a sleeper and the Chicago White Sox not being a factor. Now, at the start of June, Cleveland has a 39-20 record, which is the third-best in baseball behind just the New York Yankees and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Royals are 36-25, and the Twins are 33-26, meaning that these matchups in the division that were supposed to favor Skubal are going to be more difficult than anticipated.
The other downside for Skubal is that he could pitch his best game, but without run support, he will not tally as many wins. The AL Cy Young winner has had at least 13 wins every season since 1992, not counting the shortened 2020 season. In the last 10 years — again not counting the 2020 season — the AL Cy Young winner has registered at least 18 wins on the mound. Skubal already has seven wins, but Detroit has the 10th-lowest team batting average and averages the 14th-fewest runs per game (4.27). He could pitch great and allow a run or two but not get enough run support, resulting in his missing out on a few wins. That could be the difference between Skubal winning the Cy Young and someone surpassing him.
Top Competitors
Corbin Burnes (+425)
Burnes was my preseason pick for the 2024 AL Cy Young Award. He won the NL Cy Young in 2021 and then led the NL in strikeouts in 2022. Burnes struggled in his final season with the Milwaukee Brewers last year, finishing with a 10-8 record and a 3.39 ERA. He has transitioned well to the Baltimore Orioles in 2024, though, as through 12 starts, Burnes has a 5-2 record with a 2.35 ERA.
Burnes doesn’t currently have the strikeout numbers that Skubal has, but he isn’t far behind. The biggest thing in his favor is the Baltimore lineup. The Orioles average 5.07 runs per game, the third-most in the league. They add the ninth-highest team batting average (.249) and third-highest OPS (.752). If Burnes can keep his ERA low and average more strikeouts per start, the high-octane offense could get him some extra wins that give him the edge over Skubal come October.
Tanner Houck (+1100)
Odds-wise, this is a two-man race in early June. Skubal and Barnes are close, but then the next players have over +1000 odds of winning. Houck is a starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox, who can’t seem to sustain momentum this season. They are 30-30 at this time and have had a .500 record 14 times already this season.
Houck has pitched in 12 games this season and has a 5-5 record with a 1.85 ERA. He’s tied for the 18th-most strikeouts (75) and eighth-best WHIP (0.96) with a 2.9 WAR. The lack of consistency from the Boston lineup has contributed to his worsening odds of winning the award. Houck faces some of the same issues that Skubal does in this regard, but Boston does have the 14th-best team batting average (.243) and averages the 14th-most runs (4.35), technically faring better than Detroit’s offense.
Luis Castillo (+1200)
Castillo finished fifth in the 2023 AL Cy Young Award voting. He had a 14-9 record with a 3.34 ERA. He’s a starter for the Seattle Mariners, who sit atop the AL West with a 35-27 record. Castillo looks like he is struggling this year if you look at his 5-6 record, but his 2.99 ERA suggests otherwise. Seattle has the second-lowest team batting average in the MLB (.223) and averages the third-fewest runs per game (3.77). Castillo isn’t helping himself with lower strikeout numbers and an opposing batting average of (.231), which is his highest since 2021. Still, if Seattle can come through with more run support and he can have a strong second half of the season, he could still win the AL CY Young this year.
Cole Ragans (+1300)
Ragans was expected to be the Kansas City Royals ace this season, but with the resurgence of Seth Lugo, he has taken more of a No. 2 role in the rotation. He has pitched in 13 games this season and has tallied a 4-4 record with a 3.21 ERA. Ragans’ biggest knock has been his batting average against. His ERA isn’t awful to be in the running for a Cy Young Award, but he currently has the 33rd-highest opposing batting average in the MLB (.238). If Ragans can keep getting solid run support and limit the number of hits he allows, he could be a sleeper pick to win the award this year.
Final Thoughts
Skubal is having a great season and is one of the young stars for Detroit. The Tigers aren’t expected to be World Series contenders this year, but having a dominant ace can help inspire hope and provide someone to build around. In the short term, he has had a great first two months of the season, and it remains to be seen how he fares once everyone gets into the dog days of summer.
With Burnes nipping at his heels, assuming both stay healthy, the run support that Burnes consistently gets could result in extra wins. Even if he doesn’t have as many strikeouts and a slightly worse ERA, having four or five more wins at the end of the season could be enough of an edge to get him the AL Cy Young. For now, I think Skubal is too risky to bet, and it would be worth revisiting around the All-Star break. Burnes remains the AL Cy Young pick for me.
