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Thursday provides us with a small, 6-game slate, but there’s still plenty of betting value on the board. So, let’s get right into it, and don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today.
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Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals: YRFI (-125)
It’s Patrick Corbin day in D.C., and while Corbin’s numbers are better than in years past, they are still a far reach from what you’d expect from your top guy. Through 24 starts, Corbin owns a 4.85 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and is coming off his second shutout of the season when he surrendered just 1 hit against the Phillies across 5.0 innings. While that all sounds great, Corbin walked 7 batters and 7 of the 14 balls put in play had an exit velocity of more than 95 mph. Typically a night like that would result in multiple runs; Corbin just happened to hit a stroke of luck that particular night.
The Red Sox have hit the ball hard all season long, and I don’t expect that to change against a pitcher yielding a 45.1% hard-hit rate and .312 xBA. I’m also expecting some early success from the Nationals, even though they will be up against Chris Sale. The lefty looked sharp in his first start back last week, registering 7 strikeouts over 4.2 innings — but it was against the Detroit Tigers. The Nationals have done damage against lefties this season and are hitting .254 as a team. Sale is still working his way back and I think the Nats are better than their record suggests. Back some runs in the first inning.
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New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals: YRFI (-155)
I can’t believe I’m actually saying this, but I like the prospect of the Mets getting some early runs tonight. With the rebuild in full swing, the Mets have surprisingly won 3 of their last 4 games while averaging 6.5 runs. They jumped out to an early lead yesterday after scoring 3 runs in the second inning, and the top of their order is still very solid when they’re clicking. They’ve all struggled and underperformed over this season, but in the month of August, Brandon Nimmo is hitting .341, Francisco Lindor is at .308 and Jeff McNeil at .290. They have also gotten 6 home runs and 14 RBI from Pete Alonso in August.
The top of that lineup will see Adam Wainwright, who owns a career-worst 8.78 ERA and possibly some regret on not retiring after the conclusion of last season. Wainwright is possibly coming off 2 of the worst outings of his career after surrendering a combined 15 earned runs in 4.0 innings. His last start lasted just 1.0 inning, in which Wainwright threw 39 pitches while giving up 8 earned runs on 9 hits and 2 home runs. Wainwright’s underlying metrics are some of the worst in baseball, including a 11.8% strikeout rate, .337 xBA, .577 xSLG and a whiff rate in the 1st percentile. In this game I’m not even going to touch on Jose Quintana, because this is simply a fade on Wainwright and his well-documented struggles. Back the Mets to get an early lead.
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