Delta drives GDP down -3.7% in September quarter - in line with forecasts Country sees second largest ever quarterly fall in GDP - but the result shows increasing resilience in the face of lockdown restraints 16th Dec 21, 11:00am by David Hargreaves Country sees second largest ever quarterly fall in GDP - but the result shows increasing resilience in the face of lockdown restraints
The NZ economy was down but definitely not out in the September quarter This week's GDP figures expected to show a drop - but by nothing like the sort of drop economists earlier expected 13th Dec 21, 10:18am by David Hargreaves This week's GDP figures expected to show a drop - but by nothing like the sort of drop economists earlier expected
ASB economists say emergence of Omicron Covid variant reinforces RBNZ's 'considered steps' approach to interest rates The RBNZ’s message to financial markets was that, 'yes – interest rates do need to go up, but how high remains uncertain so don’t get too far ahead of yourselves', ASB economists say 29th Nov 21, 1:37pm by David Hargreaves The RBNZ’s message to financial markets was that, 'yes – interest rates do need to go up, but how high remains uncertain so don’t get too far ahead of yourselves', ASB economists say
ASB economists say Auckland's housing shortfall will drop to 'zero' by late next year NZ's extremely high current levels of housing construction cannot be sustained without a large and sharp recovery in net migration over 2022 and 2023, ASB economists say 11th Nov 21, 1:37pm by David Hargreaves NZ's extremely high current levels of housing construction cannot be sustained without a large and sharp recovery in net migration over 2022 and 2023, ASB economists say
Eyes on wage rises as labour market figures to be released This week's labour market figures seem set to be 'noisy' due to Covid disruptions, but should show falling unemployment and rising wage levels 1st Nov 21, 10:51am by David Hargreaves This week's labour market figures seem set to be 'noisy' due to Covid disruptions, but should show falling unemployment and rising wage levels
NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows weaker confidence levels but worst shortages of skilled labour on record NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the building sector has gone from being the most optimistic to the most pessimistic sectors surveyed 5th Oct 21, 10:55am by David Hargreaves NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows the building sector has gone from being the most optimistic to the most pessimistic sectors surveyed
What we can learn from the forthcoming 'historic' GDP figures for June Another big lockdown has once again changed the economic picture enormously, but GDP figures for the past quarter will still tell us some important things 13th Sep 21, 10:35am by David Hargreaves Another big lockdown has once again changed the economic picture enormously, but GDP figures for the past quarter will still tell us some important things
Unemployment will shrink - and wages will grow Economists see June quarter labour market figures portraying an increasingly tight jobs market and with upward pressure on wages 2nd Aug 21, 9:07am by David Hargreaves Economists see June quarter labour market figures portraying an increasingly tight jobs market and with upward pressure on wages
'A wage-inflation spiral waiting to happen' ASB and BNZ tip imminent interest rate rise after NZIER latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows worst ever shortage of labour, while inflation pressures are continuing to mount 6th Jul 21, 10:42am by David Hargreaves ASB and BNZ tip imminent interest rate rise after NZIER latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows worst ever shortage of labour, while inflation pressures are continuing to mount
Country's largest bank forecasts interest rate hikes from as soon as February ANZ economists now forecast the Reserve Bank will start increasing the Official Cash Rate in February next year following the stunning 1.6% GDP rise for the March quarter 17th Jun 21, 11:05am by David Hargreaves ANZ economists now forecast the Reserve Bank will start increasing the Official Cash Rate in February next year following the stunning 1.6% GDP rise for the March quarter
NZ economy appears to have dodged the earlier expected 'double dip' recession Economists have been upwardly adjusting their economic forecasts in recent days in the face of stronger-than-expected data and the major bank economists now see first quarter GDP producing a positive figure - IE economic growth 14th Jun 21, 9:57am by David Hargreaves Economists have been upwardly adjusting their economic forecasts in recent days in the face of stronger-than-expected data and the major bank economists now see first quarter GDP producing a positive figure - IE economic growth
OCR of 1% by the end of next year? Kiwibank economists, who are forecasting a first Official Cash Rate rise in May next year, now see a 'risk' of three rate hikes in 2022 1st Jun 21, 1:26pm by David Hargreaves Kiwibank economists, who are forecasting a first Official Cash Rate rise in May next year, now see a 'risk' of three rate hikes in 2022
NZ Budget 'the envy of many a nation' Economists say this week's Budget is going to make 'good reading' when compared with the gloomy updates over the past year 17th May 21, 2:00pm by David Hargreaves Economists say this week's Budget is going to make 'good reading' when compared with the gloomy updates over the past year
Labour market 'in a better place than anyone dared hope' Economists are seeing little change in the unemployment rate when official statistics are released this week 3rd May 21, 11:34am by David Hargreaves Economists are seeing little change in the unemployment rate when official statistics are released this week
'Cost and inflation pressures remain intense' ANZ's Business Outlook Survey preliminary data for April show pricing expectations for NZ firms have hit a new high in a series that goes back nearly 30 years 8th Apr 21, 1:16pm by David Hargreaves ANZ's Business Outlook Survey preliminary data for April show pricing expectations for NZ firms have hit a new high in a series that goes back nearly 30 years
'Double dip' recession looming after GDP drop in December quarter? The economy went into reverse again in the last quarter of 2020 with a fall that was bigger than expected by the Reserve Bank and by bank economists; second recession looms 18th Mar 21, 11:03am by David Hargreaves The economy went into reverse again in the last quarter of 2020 with a fall that was bigger than expected by the Reserve Bank and by bank economists; second recession looms
GDP settles down on the surface, but plenty going on under the hood It's a toss of a coin as to whether the New Zealand economy grew or contracted in the December quarter - but either way our recovery from lockdown has been impressive 15th Mar 21, 12:14pm by David Hargreaves It's a toss of a coin as to whether the New Zealand economy grew or contracted in the December quarter - but either way our recovery from lockdown has been impressive
Retail spending falls Statistics New Zealand says seasonally adjusted retail card spending dropped slightly in January; absence of international tourists hitting the hospitality industry 11th Feb 21, 11:34am by David Hargreaves Statistics New Zealand says seasonally adjusted retail card spending dropped slightly in January; absence of international tourists hitting the hospitality industry
Business confidence is up - but so are costs ANZ Business Outlook survey preliminary results for February show business activity is increasing, but a sharp lift in costs is dampening profitabilty 4th Feb 21, 1:23pm by David Hargreaves ANZ Business Outlook survey preliminary results for February show business activity is increasing, but a sharp lift in costs is dampening profitabilty
GDP rises record 14% in September quarter Statistics New Zealand says the country enjoyed record economic growth in the past quarter as the economy bounced back from lockdown and an 11% drop in economic activity in the June quarter 17th Dec 20, 10:57am by David Hargreaves Statistics New Zealand says the country enjoyed record economic growth in the past quarter as the economy bounced back from lockdown and an 11% drop in economic activity in the June quarter
GDP emerges boldly from deep freeze Economists are picking a record economic recover in the September quarter, with GDP expected to grow by possibly as much as 14% 14th Dec 20, 9:15am by David Hargreaves Economists are picking a record economic recover in the September quarter, with GDP expected to grow by possibly as much as 14%
Covid is opportunity to 'finally deal with NZ's housing shortage' ASB economists say NZ can now 'probably overbuild' for the next couple of years, though there is 'some risk' in doing this 7th Dec 20, 2:19pm by David Hargreaves ASB economists say NZ can now 'probably overbuild' for the next couple of years, though there is 'some risk' in doing this
RBNZ 'needs to reconsider reinstating LVR restrictions next month' ASB economists say 'by doing nothing' the RBNZ risks fuelling the fire of a housing market bubble, which could increase financial stability risks down the line 27th Oct 20, 12:45pm by David Hargreaves ASB economists say 'by doing nothing' the RBNZ risks fuelling the fire of a housing market bubble, which could increase financial stability risks down the line
Business confidence improves again ahead of the election ANZ Business Outlook preliminary survey results for October show another widespread improvement in forward looking activity indicators - some measures stronger than a year ago 8th Oct 20, 1:18pm by David Hargreaves ANZ Business Outlook preliminary survey results for October show another widespread improvement in forward looking activity indicators - some measures stronger than a year ago
Record GDP fall Statistics New Zealand says the 12.2% shrinkage of the economy in the June quarter is 'by far the largest on record in New Zealand'; the fall is in line with what major bank economists forecast 17th Sep 20, 10:58am by David Hargreaves Statistics New Zealand says the 12.2% shrinkage of the economy in the June quarter is 'by far the largest on record in New Zealand'; the fall is in line with what major bank economists forecast
